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4th District Congressional Race Tightening Up Big Time

4th. District Race is still wide open
(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

A candidate forum was held in the Prosser City Park Tuesday evening, and an informal straw poll held afterwards shows both George Cicotte and Clint Didier having some momentum in the 4th. District Race.  But another poll shows some different data.

Kennewick Attorney George Cicotte came away with 27 votes, Didier with 31, while Ephrata-are businessman and activist Gavin Seim had 9.  The straw poll consisted of attendees anonymously choosing who they would vote for in the August primary.

Dozens of such polls have been done after public candidate events and forums around the 4th Congressional District, with varying results.  Another unofficial poll conducted by a Tri-City area radio station is leaning towards Cicotte.  But there’s been very little “official” polling data conducted by independent research companies.

A search of polling data has turned up one fairly recent “official” poll conducted by the Didier campaign at the end of May.  The poll, conducted by Lansing, Michigan-based Team Telcom at the bequest of the Didier campaign, indicated he had an edge over former Washington State Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse at 17.5% to 9.75%.   State Senator Janea’ Holmquist-Newbry  of Moses Lake had 7%.

The Telcom poll, which surveyed some 400 people at random, however, did not leave any concrete conclusions.   233 of the 400 people questioned also said they weren’t sure who they would vote for, and some indicated they wouldn’t vote for any of the 12 Democratic or GOP candidates.   According to the Yakima Herald Republic July 2, this indicates despite Didier’s lead,   nothing is certain in the race.

Some polling experts say the sample was too small, 400 people, to have an accurate margin of error.   They say the small sample size could indicate the Didier margin is much closer to Newhouse and Holmquist, as well as other candidates.

According to the Telcom poll,   of the 400 people, 70 said they would vote specifically for Didier,  39 for Newhouse, and 28 for Holmquist.   The remaining 30 people who also named a  candidate they would definitely vote for were split among 7 of the 9 other candidates.

Democrats who specifically received votes included 9 for Tony Sandoval, 5 for Estakio Beltran, who’s received the official party endorsement for Yakima and Benton County, and independent Josh Ramierez 4.       In the Telcom poll,  Gavin Seim received 2.

All we really know is,  it’s going to be a wild ride between now and the August primary, when the candidates are whittled down to the top two.   Then in November, we will see who is headed to D.C. to fill the VERY big shoes of the retiring Doc Hastings.

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