Why Western Washington’s Storm Didn’t Pack the Punch We Expected

I guess some people in Washington are upset there were no tornadoes or large hail yesterday, but now the National Weather Service is explaining why.

Why This Washington Storm Didn’t Live Up to Expectations

Yesterday (March 26, 2025), Western Washington and Oregon were bracing for a devastating storm, but it never really materialized. The National Weather Service (NWS) in Seattle issued a severe thunderstorm watch, but despite the buildup and early warnings, it didn’t pack the punch that many expected. So what happened? This morning, the National Weather Service explained exactly why.

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Forecasting severe thunderstorms is a tough job in the Pacific Northwest because these kinds of storms do not happen very often. There are four key factors that need to come together for a strong storm like the one forecast: moisture, lift, instability, and shear. In this case, three of those elements happened but the fourth came up short. The atmosphere had plenty of moisture, a jet stream to provide lift, and enough wind shear to organize thunderstorms.

The Challenges of Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms in the PNW

But the big factor that didn’t fully materialize was instability. For a storm to be powerful, the atmosphere needs to heat up during the day, and that morning, the fog and persistent cloud cover kept temperatures cooler than expected and limited the amount of instability in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Without that daytime heat, the storms that did form weren’t as deep or intense as they could’ve been.

The storms still produced lots of rain in places and gusty winds, even though they were much weaker than expected. It’s a good lesson on just how tricky weather forecasting can be, especially in areas where severe thunderstorms aren’t as common. Don't be mad that we didn't get tornadoes and huge hail, and be glad we don't have to deal with the expected damages and power outages that we just missed.