Math ‘Geeks’ Trying to Beat The Odds on Madness of March Brackets
So, you're playing the Million Dollar Bracket Challenge with us? GREAT! Has anyone ever hit a perfect bracket?
According to the NCAA and USA Today, nobody has ever picked a bracket where they never lost a game. Those odds are 1 in 9 quintillion, which is 18 zeros.
However, match experts are trying to crunch numbers to find a way to beat those odds. The experts use computers to create hundreds of millions of unique brackets, but in order to produce enough of them to 'beat' those odds, it would take 300 years.
However, they are hoping to at least increase the odds, say experts. According to USA Today:
"Mathematical models can’t predict the future, but they can use past behavior to help inform your predictions. Here’s how it works: Instead of flipping a coin, let’s say you use a statistical model that predicts the outcome of every NCAA tournament game with 70% certainty. Suddenly, the odds of filling out a perfect bracket go from one in 9.2 quintillion to one in 5.74 billion. Still crazy, but not quite as crazy."
They also take into account that each team, theoretically, has a 50/50 chance to win. But in the history of modern bracket challenges, including ours and ESPN (which goes back 20 years) nobody has come close to a perfect bracket.
So, get ready to win that 50-inch TV from Uncle Sam's Saloon!